Four more years or one more day? America finally delivers its verdict as Obama and Romney make desperate last pitch for votes
- Both candidates appear overwhelmed and emotional in final campaign stops
- Grappling for final votes comes as national polls place Romney just one point ahead of Obama
- Romney up one point in Ohio and race tied in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to campaign's internal polling
- But Romney trailing in Nevada, according to campaign pollster Neil Newhouse
- If the internal polls - which the Obama campaign scoffs at - are correct, Romney will almost certainly win election
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Mitt Romney today cast his ballot in Massachusetts before jetting off to last-minute campaign stops in the crucial swing states of Ohio and Pennsylvania as the battle for the presidency entered its final hours.
The candidates are nearly neck-and-neck, with Gallup and Rasmussen giving Romney 49 per cent of the national vote ahead of President Obama's 48 per cent. An internal poll provided to MailOnline by a Republican party source puts Romney one per cent ahead in the swing state of Ohio.
Romney started his final day of campaigning by casting his ballot in Belmont, Massachusetts alongside his wife Ann and their family. He has now landed in Cleveland, Ohio and will later fly to Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania to meet campaign workers at extra stops added at the last minute.
Obama, who has said he feels 'cautiously optimistic' about the outcome of the election, has stayed in Chicago where he called campaign volunteers across the country and lined up interviews for later today. He is also scheduled to play a basketball game - somewhat of an election ritual.
The last gruelling day comes after both men appeared overwhelmed at emotional campaign stops on Monday. Tears streaked down Obama's left cheek from the corner of his eye at one point, while Romney seemed stunned by the reception.
Ready: Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan gesture to supporters and campaign workers in Richmond Heights, Ohio on Tuesday afternoon
Last efforts: Romney and Ryan grip workers' hands as they make an unscheduled stop at a Wendy's restaurant in Richmond Heights, Ohio
Not your usual cuisine? Romney and Ryan look at the menu while ordering at the Wendy's restaurant
At the polling station this morning, Mitt and Ann Romney, accompanied by their son Tagg, were greeted by cries of 'Romney! Romney!' and a sign reading: 'Mitt and Ann enjoy your new White House.' Asked who he voted for, Romney replied: 'I think you know.'
He then travelled to Bedford, Massachusetts where he was greeted by enthusiastic voters and where his campaign plane was waiting to fly him and his family to the next stop.
His running mate, Paul Ryan, was pictured voting alongside his wife in Janesville, Wisconsin early on Tuesday, before flying to Cleveland to meet Romney. Together, the Republican candidates made an impromptu lunch stop at a Wendy's restaurant in Richmond Heights and visited campaign offices.
Obama's vice president, Joe Biden, was seen voting in Greenville, Delaware before boarding a plane to Chicago - but made an unannounced stop in Cleveland en route, awkwardly arriving just minutes after Ryan and Romney touched down.
President Obama took advantage of early voting in Chicago and cast his ballot last week.
Ready: Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney prepares to cast his ballot at Beech Street Center in Belmont, Massachusetts
Stepping up: Mitt Romney, with his wife Ann at his side, casts his ballot for the U.S. presidential election in Belmont, Massachusetts on Tuesday
Job done: Romney and his wife Ann emerge from the Beech Street Center after casting their ballots on Tuesday morning
On to the next stop! Romney boards his campaign plane in Bedford, Massachusetts for Ohio after voting on Tuesday morning
He will conduct a dozen satellite interviews from Chicago to be broadcast in battleground states on Tuesday. He took the chance to talk about his close family ties, and how his wife and children have coped with the fame of the White House, in one interview with Ryan Seacrest.
'Michelle is very good about making sure that we're creating a space for them where they can have sleepovers,' he said. 'They can go to the mall. They can go to the movies. They're going to homecomings at their school.'
But he joked about allowing them to date: 'I think that any young man who has the guts to get through Secret Service deserves a hearing.'
Obama got back to business, encouraging people to vote, whomever they choose to support.
'The first thing is vote,' he said. 'Regardless of who you’re voting for our democracy works when the American people get involved. The American people are decent, hard working, and they’ve got great instincts. The more people participate the better the outcome.'
Staying positive: President Barack Obama calls volunteers in Wisconsin as he visits a campaign office in Chicago, Illinois, on election day
All smiles: President Obama speaks to the media and reveals he is 'confident' that he has enough votes to win the election
Thankful: The president hugs a volunteer during his visit to a campaign field office in Chicago, near to his South Side home
Support: Obama looks at a commemorative 'Obama shoe' that a campaign volunteer asked him to sign outside the office
But it isn't all work for the president today, as he plans to indulge in his Election Day ritual of playing basketball.
Former White House spokesman Robert Gibbs told the Washington Post that Obama sent an e-mail to his former personal aide, Reggie Love, to begin organising his regular basketball game in Chicago.
'We made the mistake of not playing basketball once,' Gibbs said in reference to a missed game on the day of the 2008 primary election in New Hampshire, which Obama lost to Hillary Clinton. 'We won’t make that mistake again.'
Obama extended his congratulations to Romney 'on a spirited campaign' on Tuesday morning. But the president, who spoke with reporters after calling Wisconsin campaign volunteers from near his Chicago home, said he is 'confident we've got the votes to win'.
He was greeted by thunderous applause from volunteers, many of whom had tears streaming down their face, at the campaign office. During his phone calls, he told one volunteer to 'keep working hard all the way through', adding: 'Hopefully we'll have a good day'.
Support: The Romneys share a kiss after voting in Belmont - and ahead of final campaign stops in Ohio and Pennsylvania
Family: Romney hugs his grandson Joe, as his wife Ann and son Tagg look on, after voting during the presidential election in Belmont
He's off! Voters swarm Mitt Romney's car as he drives away from Beech Street Center to catch his campaign plane
Last-ditch votes: Romney greets a family before boarding his campaign plane in Bedford, Massachusetts
Heading off: Romney prepares to board his campaign plane with his son Tagg Romney (left) for two last-minute stops in Ohio and Pennsylvania
The words of encouragement come after Obama revealed on The Steve Harvey Morning Show on Monday: 'I feel optimistic but only cautiously optimistic, because until people actually show up at the polls and cast their ballot, the rest of this stuff is all just speculation.'
On Monday, one of his final campaign stops was in Des Moines, Iowa, a state where he defeated Clinton in the Democratic caucuses of January 2000, with Bruce Springsteen.
Romney was in Manchester, New Hampshire, the state where he had a holiday home and where he launched a 2012 campaign that now places him agonisingly close to the presidency - leading in some national polls but just behind in all-important Ohio.
Warming up a crowd of more than 11,000 in the Verizon Wireless Arena in Manchester was Kid Rock, who performed his 'Born Free' song that has become the Romney campaign's anthem.
Both men delivered version of the stump speech they have honed in recent days and delivered up to four times a day as they have crisscrossed the country.
Excited: Vice President Joe Biden holds hands with a poll worker as he emerges from the voting booth after casting his ballot in Greenville, Delaware on Tuesday
Devoted: Biden holds the hand of his granddaughter Natalie as he arrives with his family to vote in Greenville
Heading out: Biden and his wife Jill wave as they depart New Castle, Delaware en route to Chicago to join President Obama
Talking it through: Republican vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan votes accompanied by his children Charlie, Sam and Liza in Janesville, Wisconsin
Are you sure? Ryan casts his ballot with his wife Janna, son Charlie and daughter Liza on election day in Janesville
Helping hand: Ryan meets with voters and polling volunteers as he casts his votes in Janesville accompanied by his children
Raring to go: Ryan gives the press a thumbs-up while speaking to senior adviser Dan Senor on board the campaign plane en route to Cleveland
Reunited: Romney and Ryan walk off Romney's plane in Cleveland, Ohio. Ryan had arrived moments earlier on his own plane and met Romney on board
'This is where the campaign began,' Romney said. 'You got this campaign started a year and a half ago. Tomorrow your votes and your work here in New Hampshire will help me become the next President of the United States.'
There were loud boos whenever Obama's name was mentioned. 'With the right leadership, America is going to come roaring back,' Romney said. 'President Obama promised change but couldn't deliver it. I not only promise change, but I have a record of achieving it.'
In Des Moines, Obama savoured but also lamented what would be the last time he would ever hold a campaign rally – for himself, at least.
He declared: 'I came back to ask you to help us finish what we started because this is where our movement for change began.
'To all of you who've lived and breathed the hard work of change - I want to thank you. You took this campaign and made it your own. When the cynics said you couldn't, you said: "Yes we can".'
Queue: Voters line up to cast their ballots outside a polling station in the East Village neighborhood of New York
Long wait: William Wright, left, and India Johnson, both freshmen at Old Dominion University, wait to vote in Norfolk, Virginia
Crowd: The media watches as Congressman Todd Akin vote at the Star Bridge Christian Center in Wildwood, Missouri, where he is running for U.S. Senate
Creative: People cast their ballot at a polling station in a laundromat in Chicago, Illinois as Romney and Obama battle for the presidency
Romney is ahead by a single percentage point in Ohio - the swing state that could well decide the election - according to internal polling data provided to MailOnline by a Republican party source.
Internal campaign polling completed on Sunday night by campaign pollster Neil Newhouse has Romney three points up in New Hampshire, two points up in Iowa and dead level in Wisconsin. Most startlingly, the figures show Romney and Obama deadlocked in Pennsylvania.
If the Romney campaign's internal numbers are correct - and nearly all independent pollsters have come up with a picture much more favourable for Obama - then the former Massachusetts governor will almost certainly be elected 45th U.S. President.
The internal polls show Romney trailing in Nevada, reflected in a consensus among senior advisers that Obama will probably win the state. Early voting in Nevada has shown very heavy turnout in the Democratic stronghold of Clark County and union organisation in the state is strong.
Words of encouragement: Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice attends a Get-Out-To-Vote Event for support of Romney in Davie, Florida
Getting ready: Residents wait in line in the pre-dawn hours to vote at a historic property called the Hunter House at Nottoway Park in Vienna, Virginia
Long wait: People wait in a line to vote in the presidential election at a polling site in Arlington, Virginia on Tuesday morning
Making a difference: Voters fill out their ballots at the First Church of the Open Bible in Des Moines, Iowa
Voting for two: Samantha Pelletier shows off the voting sticker that was placed on her pregnant belly in Bristol, New Hampshire
Dedicated: Voters fill out their ballots at Washington Mill Elementary School in Fairfax County, Virginia
Despite the Romney campaign's optimism, a Washington Post-ABC News poll released on the evening before the election gave Obama a slim lead, with 50 per cent for the President compared to 47 per cent for his challenger.
Polls released by Gallup and Rasmussen, however, both gave Romney a 49 per cent of the national vote, ahead of Obama on 48 per cent.
Nearly all public polling put Obama ahead in Ohio by whisker at least. The RealClearPolitics average of polls there gives the president a 2.8 per cent advantage.
But the Romney campaign insists that pollsters have their models wrong and are overestimating Democratic turnout, oversampling Democrats and underestimating Republican enthusiasm.
Emotions high: Tears streaked down Obama's cheek during his last campaign rally Des Moines, Iowa
Smiles: In Des Moines, Iowa, Obama savoured but also lamented what would be the last time he would ever hold a campaign rally - for himself, at least
Emotions: Ann Romney wipes away tears during her husband's last campaign rally
Last stop: Romney waves to the crowd alongside his wife Ann at his final campaign rally in Manchester, New Hampshire
The most dramatic shift in the Romney campaign's internal polling has been in Wisconsin, which has moved from being eight points down to pulling level. Obama is campaigning in the state on the eve of election day.
Despite the Obama campaign's insistence that Romney's late decision to contest Pennsylvania is an act of 'desperation', former President Bill Clinton - Obama's most valuable ally on the stump - is holding four eve-of-election events there.
A surprise Romney win in Pennsylvania, which has 20 of the 270 electoral college votes needed for victory, would almost certainly be a fatal blow to Obama's re-election hopes.
If Romney took Wisconsin, that would offer him a credible path to victory without winning Ohio.
The Romney campaign believes that both Florida, Virginia and North Carolina - all of which Obama won in 2008 - are 'done' for the Democratic incumbent, as one senior adviser put it.
Many Republicans party officials are less bullish about Pennsylvania and Wisconsin than the Romney campaign, believing their nominee will probably fall short there, setting up a showdown in Ohio, which has 18 electoral college votes and decided the 2004 election for President George W. Bush.
Embrace: The Republican hugged his wife Ann on stage as the crowd at his final campaign rally cheered
Sea of supporters: Romney speaks during his final campaign rally at the Verizon Wireless Arena in Manchester, New Hampshire
How the Romney campaign believes it can win the Presidency
Based on conversations with the Romney campaign, including a frank discussion with a senior Romney adviser, here's how they see the Republican nominee winning.
Of course, campaign aides spin reporters because they want their optimistic scenarios to become part of a media narrative that helps drive voters. They are also part of a self-reinforcing campaign bubble in which belief in eventual victory is a prerequisite of getting through gruelling days.
But the adviser quoted here, who correctly identified to me weeks beforehand that the first debate would be a game-changing moment for Romney, has always predicted a very close race and is honest enough to identify states such as Nevada which Romney probably won't win.
If we look at the 2008 electoral college map, when Obama beat Senator John McCain by an electoral college landslide of 365 to 173 (and seven percentage points in the popular vote), we can view the terrain on which the 2012 contest is being fought.
States of the nation: How the voting battleground could shape up coast to coast according to a round up of the latest polls
Looking back at the 2008 electoral college map, when Obama beat Senator John McCain by an electoral college landslide of 365 to 173 (and seven percentage points in the popular vote), we can view the terrain on which the 2012 contest is being fought.
The distribution of electoral college votes (which are based on congressional districts and U.S. Senate seats) has changed slightly in 2012. Because of the changes, Obama's advantage has shrunk to 359 to 179 in the electoral college. The winner needs 270 votes. So for Romney to win, he needs to take 91 electoral college votes from the states that Obama won in 2008.
We can immediately give one vote in Nebraska (based on winning a congressional district) and 11 in Indiana to Romney. Obama is not campaigning for those. Next up is 15 in North Carolina. Obama won it by just 14,000 votes in 2008 and early voting patterns indicate he's probably going to lose there.
Then we have Florida - its 29 votes are a huge prize. The latest Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald poll has Obama being crushed by six points there. That's the next state Romney needs. The Romney adviser was very confident, telling me: 'North Carolina's baked. Florida's baked.'
From there, it gets more difficult. Virginia, with 13 votes, is tighter than Florida but, again, early voting patterns suggest Romney will win it, though not by much. The Romney adviser said that 'Virginia's baked' though he added that it was 'much closer than Florida'.
Keen: A light wet snow covers the roof and ground around the Jenkins Town Hall as early voters casts their ballots in Jenkins, Minnesota
A world away: Mike Wigart, 30, picks up his ballot at a polling station in the garage of the Los Angeles County lifeguard headquarters
Early voters: Colby Klein, 2, seated on the floor, waits for her parents to cast their ballots in Los Angeles as her sister Astin Klein, 3
No stopping them: Voters wait in line to cast their ballots under a tent in the Rockaways in New York, which was hit hard by Hurricane Sandy
At this point, the Obama campaign would be really sweating. But so too would Romney's team. We'd be down to Ohio, just as President George W. Bush was in 2004. This year, it has 18 electoral college votes.
If Romney bags Ohio, he's on 266 electoral college votes and has multiple opportunities to get the four more he needs. Colorado's nine, New Hampshire's four, Iowa's six and Wisconsin's 10 look most likely. It's very hard to see Romney winning Florida, Virginia and Ohio and Obama keeping the White House.
Romney's aides seem very bullish about Iowa - more so, even, than Colorado, where they say he took a hit in their internal polling with women independents after Obama's handling of Hurricane Sandy. The latest Des Moines Register poll gives Obama a five-point advantage. But the Romney campaigns that the same poll put Obama up 17 in 2008 and he won the state by 10 points.
Privately, the Romney campaign has effectively conceded Nevada, which has six votes. 'Nevada, we'll probably fall short,' said the Romney adviser. 'That's just tough.' Romney hasn't travelled there since October 24th, just as Obama has stayed away from North Carolina.
More remarkably, the adviser said that Minnesota, 10 votes, and Pennsylvania, 20 votes, were distinct possibiities. He even predicted a possible win in Minnesota.
Advantage Romney: The GOP challenger holds a slender lead in national polls from Rasmussen (left) and Gallup (right) released on Monday
Swing states: Rasmussen gives Romney a two-point lead in Virginia, along with Florida and Ohio - one of the three big battleground states that he almost certainly has to win
Pennsylvania is intriguing. There's a Susquehanna poll that puts the two candidates dead level. Obama has to be a heavy favourite - no Republican presidential candidate has won there since George H.W. Bush in 1988
But the Obama campaign has sent Bill Clinton to do four events in Pennsylvania on the eve of election day. After Obama himself - and perhaps even ahead of Obama - Clinton is their most valuable campaign resource. There is clearly some worry there.
So that's the electoral college arithmetic. There is not too much difference between the way the two campaigns view it.
The more difficult case to make is how Romney's vote is lifted so that on the spectrum of Obama states to capture (the order in terms of confidence seems to be Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, Iowa, Ohio, Colorado, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Nevada and Michigan) it is a tide that rises above the Ohio threshold.
For that, several things have to happen: the battleground polls have to be wrong; undecideds have to vote for Romney; Romney's turnout has to be very high; Obama's vote has to be depressed.
Can so many polls be wrong? The short answer is yes. It is worth remembering that in January 2008 virtually no one in the political world believed that Hillary Clinton could win the New Hampshire primary over Obama, fresh off his Iowa victory. But win it she did.
Looking to the future: Voters wait in front of the Mt. Pleasant Library in Cleveland, Ohio early on Tuesday to vote in the elections
Tough decisions: People vote at a polling site in Toledo, Ohio on Tuesday morning as the men are almost neck and neck in the polls
Choices: More voters gather around booths in Toledo to make their choice for the president of the United States
In line: People stand in line to cast their votes as the polls opened at a precinct at the Wake County Firearms Education and Training Center in Apex, North Carolina
This year, apart from Gallup and Rasmussen, pollsters have consistently over-sampled Democrats compared to Republicans. The Romney adviser said: 'The samples that they're using are geared towards 2008 results. So you get Democrats plus four on Pew, you've got Democrats plus eight on PPP.
'It's going to be a Republican plus one or Republicans plus two election. It's not 2008, it's not 2004, it's not 2000. It's a new election. It's 2012 and a completely different dynamic. Every election we re-write history on turnout.
'Gallup looked at it a week ago and decided it was going to be a more Republican electorate and they had it right.'
The closer you get to an election, the more likely undecideds are to break against the incumbent. Romney will also have voter enthusiasm on his side. Whether that's enough, remains an open question but the Romney campaign thinks so.
Certainly, in Florida, North Carolina and Colorado, the early voting evidence is encouraging for Romney supporters. In Ohio, the picture is more mixed. The Romney adviser predicted a win in Ohio by as little at 20,000 votes. In 2004, Bush won it by 119,00 votes and in 2008 Obama won it by 262,000.
It appears that Romney was damaged by Hurricane Sandy - he was virtually absent from the television screens for four days, the discussion turned away from jobs and the economy and
Obama's double act with Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey burnished his bipartisan credentials.
Patience: People wait in an estimated two-hour long line that goes down around the block to vote at a polling site in Arlington, Virginia
Having a say: Voters wait for their addresses to be checked at the polling station at Metropolitan AME Church in Washington, DC
Proud: Penny the Boston Terrier votes with her owners, Amy O'Neill (left) and girlfriend Michelle Nowakowski in Milwaukee, Wisconsin
But the Romney adviser said that this has been turned around. 'Sandy didn't flip us with independents but it narrowed. Then on Friday we got back in business with the "revenge" ad. Finally, we got back into business.
'Then Mitt just hit it in speech after speech and it got people back, particularly independents. Again saw Obama as divisive, petty, the negative partisan guy that they'd been seeing since the November 2nd debate.'
Can the Romney campaign envisage Obama winning? The adviser responded: 'I don't see it. But his easiest path to that would be Ohio.
'He takes Ohio because Democratic men, hardworking lower middle class men, we don't get the margin we think we're getting. He somehow ekes it out. He gets Nevada, he gets Colorado, he gets New Hampshire. That's probably the scenario.'
The Obama campaign believes that is indeed the scenario that will deliver them the White House. On Tuesday, we will know which of the two very different versions - almost parallel universes - of this race presented by the two campaign worlds will be the one that represents reality.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2228491/US-Election-2012-Romney-Obama-scramble-votes-hours.html#ixzz2BTUebIkC
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